The fifth China International Photovoltaic Industry Summit Forum was held in Chengdu with the theme of “anchoring the dual carbon goals to empower a green future”. Colleagues talk freely about where the photovoltaic industry is heading.
Cao Renxian, chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, stated at the forum that while the photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly, it is also facing some problems, such as mismatching production and demand in the supply chain, and consumption. The photovoltaic industry should quickly return to the channel of promoting cost reduction and efficiency enhancement through technological innovation, avoid ineffective fierce competition, ensure high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry, and accelerate the construction of new batteries that emphasize both photovoltaic and energy storage.
In the “Leaders Dialogue” section of the forum, entrepreneurs, scholars, and industry association leaders from upstream and downstream of the photovoltaic industry had a fierce collision of views on the current situation and future prospects of the industry.
1. “Excessive investment is bound to lead to overcapacity in the future”
The current industry presents three major trends and characteristics:①phased capacity expansion of polysilicon;②While expanding production capacity, the industrial chain extends in depth to the upper and lower reaches;③The layout of the industrial chain is concentrated in regions rich in renewable energy, such as Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan. Currently, overheated industrial investment is bound to lead to periodic overcapacity in the short term in the future, and will lead to more intense market competition. Enterprises need to do a good job in internal skills, improve efficiency and value-added, and further reduce costs.
2. “Capital differentiation leads to severe internalization”
“Every industry has a cycle.” The photovoltaic industry is currently in an era of capital differentiation, with insufficient technological content, and technological differentiation and barriers have not been formed. Therefore, capital differentiation has led to a relatively severe competition. In the next decade, the photovoltaic industry will generate technological differentiation and form technical barriers. Everyone believes that photovoltaic technology is relatively simple, mainly in modules and inverters. Looking ahead, the future technological value will be reflected in four aspects:①N-type battery;②Energy storage;③Diversified application scenarios of photovoltaic products;④Intelligence and digitization of the industry.
3. “The next two to three years will usher in a period of sedimentation and turbulence.”
In the past decade or so, the development of the new energy industry has experienced ups and downs, which also warns that some situations in the industry are a bit “hot” and a bit “excessive”. It is expected that within the next two to three years, the industry will usher in a period of sedimentation and turbulence. Here are some suggestions:①Rational competition;② Return to technological innovation;③Inclusive development.
The prospects for the “dual carbon” goal are very good, allowing for the common development of all colleagues in the new energy industry. Therefore, in this process, it is necessary to avoid unfair competition, even vicious competition. Of course, we should encourage market-oriented competition.
4.”There may be overcapacity or homogeneous competition in some links.”
On the one hand, the global production layout is turning to localization and nearshore production, and the characteristic of “localization” is very obvious. Chinese photovoltaic enterprises should be vigilant against various trade barriers when entering the international market. On the other hand, when focusing on the domestic market, in the past year and a half, there have been more than 300 photovoltaic award-winning projects. During this process, we will definitely see that there may be overcapacity or homogeneous competition in some links, and we should be particularly careful.
The photovoltaic industry seems to encounter an industry cycle every five years, from 2008, 2013, 2018, until today, the characteristics of this cycle are supply chain matching, supply and demand balance issues, and I hope that all photovoltaic colleagues can safely traverse this industry cycle.
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Post time: Mar-30-2023