SolarPower Europe (SPE) predicts in its latest report, *Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2025-2029*, that global PV additions will grow by 10% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 655GW under its medium scenario. Although this is still a significant increase in absolute terms, it represents a clear slowdown compared to the 33% growth seen in 2024 (with 597GW of new installations that year).
SPE notes that the policy directions in the two largest PV markets, China and the United States, could further dampen growth prospects in 2025. Another drag on growth is the lack of effective implementation of a unified policy framework among EU member states. Against this backdrop, SPE’s conservative forecast for 2025 is 548GW, representing an 8% year-on-year decline; in an optimistic scenario—if module prices remain low and Chinese policy stimulus is added—annual additions could reach 774GW, nearly 30% growth year-on-year.
China Leads the Global Market in 2024, with Strong Growth in the U.S. and India
In 2024, the top ten PV markets together accounted for 81% of global new installations.
China led the world with 329GW of new capacity, a 30% increase year-on-year, making up 55% of the global total. The U.S. followed with a record 50GW of new installations, up 54% year-on-year; India posted a 145% surge to 30.7GW. Brazil and Germany ranked fourth and fifth, with 18.9GW and 17.4GW of new capacity, respectively.
Low Prices and Technological Advances Drive Market Expansion; Storage and Flexibility Become Key
The rapid growth in installations over the past year has been driven by continued advances in PV technology and historically low prices caused by industry-wide overcapacity. As a ”cornerstone technology” for combating climate change, ensuring energy security, and supporting national energy strategies, the strategic status of PV continues to rise.
SPE CEO Walburga Hemetsberger stated:
The solar age has fully arrived. While development paces vary by region, the common thread is the need to build more flexible, fully electrified energy systems, where key technologies like storage play a fundamental supporting role. Global policymakers should ensure that their electricity flexibility plans align with solar’s development and maximize its potential.
Temporary Slowdown Expected in 2026, Double-Digit Growth to Resume in 2027
At the Intersolar Europe 2025 exhibition in Munich, SPE’s Head of Market Intelligence and Executive Advisor Michael Schmela noted that the Chinese market may experience a temporary slowdown in 2026 due to design mechanism adjustments, but from 2027 onwards, global PV installations are expected to return to double-digit growth.
He added:
In the long term, the fundamentals—such as continuously falling module prices, rising cross-sector electrification demand, and the growing priority of energy security—will continue to support PV demand growth. However, in the short term, particularly due to uncertainties around Chinese policy shifts, there may be intermittent volatility.
1TW of New PV Installations Possible by 2030
The report shows that in 2024, PV accounted for 81% of global new renewable energy installations, raising its share in the global power mix to 7%. However, to meet the Global Solar Council’s target of 8TW cumulative capacity by 2030, an average of around 1TW of new installations will be needed each year.
SPE projects that under its medium scenario, annual PV installations will reach 930GW by 2029, while in an optimistic scenario, they could exceed 1.2TW. Achieving 1TW of new installations annually by 2030 is “not out of reach.”
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Post time: May-09-2025